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The remote gaming duty hike from 21% to 40% in April is also expected to have a significant impact on the black market, with Regulus estimating it could drive the market to be worth up to €1 billion, as consumers choose illegal offerings to access unrestricted bonuses.

Other studies have made similar estimations. In June last year two thirds of bettors surveyed by YouGov said the tax increase, which will also hit online sports betting from next year, would drive them to play with unlicensed operators.

The UK has historically maintained a high channelisation rate due to it being particuarly mature with a huge competitive offering. According to the report, up to 1,491 licensed sites provides sufficient choice for engaged players.

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Dutch MPs have raised similar concerns before. In December 2025, CDA MP Straatman asked the state secretary whether websites advertising as “Beste casino’s zonder Cruks” should be taken offline immediately. 

In a written response published in January 2026, Arno Rutte, the state secretary at the time acknowledged that enforcement against such sites remained limited, particularly for domains not registered under the .nl extension.

According to KVA, KT van Bruggen, the current state secretary for Justice and Security, has pointed out the urgency of implementing effective countermeasures to limit access to such illegal platforms.

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Moving forward, prediction markets could see a bump from appearances by several high-profile teams in primetime during Week 2. On Thursday, the Buffalo Bills will make their regular-season debut at Highmark Stadium against the Detroit Lions. Enthusiasm among supporters of the “Bills Mafia” for the opening of the $2.2 billion stadium could pad weekly totals on prediction markets. New York is one of the nation’s largest markets for sports betting and predictions.

The week will conclude with a matchup on Monday Night Football between the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams, the putative Super Bowl favourite. On Kalshi, the Rams had a 75% probability to defeat the Giants as of Wednesday afternoon.

“It’s going to be a great test for our team,” said Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart on Wednesday.