Vampire Night

About Vampire Night

While the Polymarket/Yahoo Finance situation is one of the earliest examples of a severed relationship between a prediction market operator and a media entity, that doesn’t mean those “divorces” will permeate the two industries.

There’s widespread belief that old guard media companies are incentivized to feature event contract data on their sites or reference it in select publications as a way of better connecting with younger readers and viewers.

Then there are the financial implications, namely new revenue streams. Prediction market operators typically pay media companies to integrate their data while some outlets also earn referral commissions for driving new business to yes/no exchanges.

How to play Vampire Night

The bitter, longstanding feud between Station Casinos and the Culinary Union in Las Vegas took another turn this month, this time to Washington, DC and the US Supreme Court.

On 4 September, Chief Justice John Roberts denied Station’s emergency request for a stay of a federal appeals court decision that ordered the company’s Red Rock Casino Resort Spa in Summerlin to comply with a National Labor Relations Board mandate and bargain in good faith with the union following a failed labour vote in late 2019. Roberts gave no explanation for the denial.

The NLRB ruled after the election that Red Rock took steps to prevent a fair union vote, and Red Rock sued in response, although the ruling was upheld by the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia last month. After the court denied a rehearing request on 6 August, it also subsequently denied Station’s request for a stay pending SCOTUS relief on 24 August.

About Vampire Night

The conclusion of the Yahoo Finance deal comes as there is more talk about the use of prediction market data in journalism. Operators such as Polymarket and rival Kalshi have touted their markets as a way to get real-time information on how likely future events are to occur. 

However, some media industry observers have questioned whether trading activity can reliably stand in for broader public opinion. There are also concerns among critics over the growing links between news organizations and prediction platforms. 

At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives.